Numerical Fitting-based Likelihood Calculation to Speed up the Particle Filter

The likelihood calculation of a vast number of particles is the computational bottleneck for the particle filter in applications where the observation information is rich. For fast computing the likelihood of particles, a numerical fitting approach is proposed to construct the Likelihood Probability Density Function (Li-PDF) by using a comparably small number of so-called fulcrums. The likelihood of particles is thereby analytically inferred, explicitly or implicitly, based on the Li-PDF instead of directly computed by utilizing the observation, which can significantly reduce the computation and enables real time filtering. The proposed approach guarantees the estimation quality when an appropriate fitting function and properly distributed fulcrums are used. The details for construction of the fitting function and fulcrums are addressed respectively in detail. In particular, to deal with multivariate fitting, the nonparametric kernel density estimator is presented which is flexible and convenient for implicit Li-PDF implementation. Simulation comparison with a variety of existing approaches on a benchmark 1-dimensional model and multi-dimensional robot localization and visual tracking demonstrate the validity of our approach.Comment: 42 pages, 17 figures, 4 tables and 1 appendix. This paper is a draft/preprint of one paper submitted to the IEEE Transaction

Modeling of Failure Prediction Bayesian Network with Divide-and-Conquer Principle

For system failure prediction, automatically modeling from historical failure dataset is one of the challenges in practical engineering fields. In this paper, an effective algorithm is proposed to build the failure prediction Bayesian network (FPBN) model with data mining technology. First, the conception of FPBN is introduced to describe the state of components and system and the cause-effect relationships among them. The types of network nodes, the directions of network edges, and the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) of nodes in FPBN are discussed in detail. According to the characteristics of nodes and edges in FPBN, a divide-and-conquer principle based algorithm (FPBN-DC) is introduced to build the best FPBN network structures of different types of nodes separately. Then, the CPDs of nodes in FPBN are calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the built network. Finally, a simulation study of a helicopter convertor model is carried out to demonstrate the application of FPBN-DC. According to the simulations results, the FPBN-DC algorithm can get better fitness value with the lower number of iterations, which verified its effectiveness and efficiency compared with traditional algorithm

An importance measure for multistate systems with external factors

Many technical systems are operated under the impact of external factors that may cause the systems to fail. For such systems, an interesting question is how those external factors and their impacts on the system can be identified at an earlier stage. Importance measures in reliability engineering are used to prioritise weak components (or states) of a system. Component failures and the impact of external factors in the real world may be statistically dependent as external factors may affect system performance. This paper proposes a new importance measure for analysing the impact of external factors on system performance. The measure can evaluate the degree of the impact of external factors on the system and can therefore help engineers to identify the factors with the strong impact on the system performance. A real-world case study is used to illustrate its applicability

An importance measure for multistate systems with external factors

Many technical systems are operated under the impact of external factors that may cause the systems to fail. For such systems, an interesting question is how those external factors and their impacts on the system can be identified at an earlier stage. Importance measures in reliability engineering are used to prioritise weak components (or states) of a system. Component failures and the impact of external factors in the real world may be statistically dependent as external factors may affect system performance. This paper proposes a new importance measure for analysing the impact of external factors on system performance. The measure can evaluate the degree of the impact of external factors on the system and can therefore help engineers to identify the factors with the strong impact on the system performance. A real-world case study is used to illustrate its applicability

Numerical fitting-based likelihood calculation to speed up the particle filter

The likelihood calculation of a vast number of particles forms the computational bottleneck for the particle filter in applications where the observation model is complicated, especially when map or image processing is involved. In this paper, a numerical fitting approach is proposed to speed up the particle filter in which the likelihood of particles is analytically inferred/fitted, explicitly or implicitly, based on that of a small number of so-called fulcrums. It is demonstrated to be of fairly good estimation accuracy when an appropriate fitting function and properly distributed fulcrums are used. The construction of the fitting function and fulcrums are addressed respectively in detail. To avoid intractable multivariate fitting in multi-dimensional models, a nonparametric kernel density estimator such as the nearest neighbor smoother or the uniform kernel average smoother can be employed for implicit likelihood fitting. Simulations based on a benchmark one-dimensional model and multi-dimensional mobile robot localization are provided

Frequently asked questions about chlorophyll fluorescence, the sequel

[EN] Using chlorophyll (Chl) a fluorescence many aspects of the photosynthetic apparatus can be studied, both in vitro and, noninvasively, in vivo. Complementary techniques can help to interpret changes in the Chl a fluorescence kinetics. Kalaji et al. (Photosynth Res 122: 121-158, 2014a) addressed several questions about instruments, methods and applications based on Chl a fluorescence. Here, additionalChl a fluorescence-related topics are discussed again in a question and answer format. Examples are the effect of connectivity on photochemical quenching, the correction of F-V/F-M values for PSI fluorescence, the energy partitioning concept, the interpretation of the complementary area, probing the donor side of PSII, the assignment of bands of 77 K fluorescence emission spectra to fluorescence emitters, the relationship between prompt and delayed fluorescence, potential problems when sampling tree canopies, the use of fluorescence parameters in QTL studies, the use of Chl a fluorescence in biosensor applications and the application of neural network approaches for the analysis of fluorescence measurements. The answers draw on knowledge fromdifferent Chl a fluorescence analysis domains, yielding in several cases new insights.Kalaji, H.; Schansker, G.; Brestic, M.; Bussotti, F.; Calatayud, A.; Ferroni, L.; Goltsev, V.... (2017). Frequently asked questions about chlorophyll fluorescence, the sequel. 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Potential of Core-Collapse Supernova Neutrino Detection at JUNO

JUNO is an underground neutrino observatory under construction in Jiangmen, China. It uses 20kton liquid scintillator as target, which enables it to detect supernova burst neutrinos of a large statistics for the next galactic core-collapse supernova (CCSN) and also pre-supernova neutrinos from the nearby CCSN progenitors. All flavors of supernova burst neutrinos can be detected by JUNO via several interaction channels, including inverse beta decay, elastic scattering on electron and proton, interactions on C12 nuclei, etc. This retains the possibility for JUNO to reconstruct the energy spectra of supernova burst neutrinos of all flavors. The real time monitoring systems based on FPGA and DAQ are under development in JUNO, which allow prompt alert and trigger-less data acquisition of CCSN events. The alert performances of both monitoring systems have been thoroughly studied using simulations. Moreover, once a CCSN is tagged, the system can give fast characterizations, such as directionality and light curve

Detection of the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background with JUNO

As an underground multi-purpose neutrino detector with 20 kton liquid scintillator, Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is competitive with and complementary to the water-Cherenkov detectors on the search for the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB). Typical supernova models predict 2-4 events per year within the optimal observation window in the JUNO detector. The dominant background is from the neutral-current (NC) interaction of atmospheric neutrinos with 12C nuclei, which surpasses the DSNB by more than one order of magnitude. We evaluated the systematic uncertainty of NC background from the spread of a variety of data-driven models and further developed a method to determine NC background within 15\% with {\it{in}} {\it{situ}} measurements after ten years of running. Besides, the NC-like backgrounds can be effectively suppressed by the intrinsic pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) capabilities of liquid scintillators. In this talk, I will present in detail the improvements on NC background uncertainty evaluation, PSD discriminator development, and finally, the potential of DSNB sensitivity in JUNO

Real-time Monitoring for the Next Core-Collapse Supernova in JUNO

Core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the Universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the SN burst is a unique opportunity to realize the multi-messenger observation of the CCSN events. In this work, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to the pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), which is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector under construction in South China. The real-time monitoring system is designed with both the prompt monitors on the electronic board and online monitors at the data acquisition stage, in order to ensure both the alert speed and alert coverage of progenitor stars. By assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system can be sensitive to the pre-SN neutrinos up to the distance of about 1.6 (0.9) kpc and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kpc for a progenitor mass of 30$M_{\odot}$ for the case of normal (inverted) mass ordering. The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by using the accumulated event anisotropy of the inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos, which, along with the early alert, can play important roles for the followup multi-messenger observations of the next Galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure